The Best Time Of The Year

We’ve been talking about how important this year was from a historical standpoint since January.

When the markets end January green, the odds of a follow through year are somewhere around 80%.

Combine that with the fact that we were breaking out into new all-time highs, within a secular bull market, and in an election year, we were betting big that this year would be better than everyone expected.

I encourage you to read it yourself by clicking here.

And so far, this year has not disappointed:

But with the election coverage, geopolitical events around the world, inflation scares and an interest rate decision around the corner, what can we reasonably expect through the end of the year?

We think that the market is going to continue to rip higher.

This may upset you, but we aren’t in the business of making friends, we’re in the business of making money.

So before you exit this email and smash the unsubscribe button, let me lay out why we think this market continues higher over the next few months:

An absolutely beautiful chart from Ryan Detrick showcasing some seasonality performance metrics.

From 1950 until today, there is no more profitable time to be long the markets than November through April with average return of 7.1%.

But what’s more important to me is how the market has acted this year during the weakest seasonally weak period:

While May through October is the worst time to be long the markets, “sell in May and go away” was arguably the worst advice you could have listened to.

And the normal summer volatility that everyone expected never really manifested either.

As a matter of fact, the August 5th low ended up being one of the best times all year to buy stocks.

This information is very important to us because if the seasonally weak periods of the market were not very weak, what could that potentially say about the seasonally strong periods?

It’s obvious - we think they’re going to be very strong.

Just look at the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:

After spending all summer consolidating underneath those July highs, are you willing to take the bet that these don’t continue higher?

SPY has already broken out into new all-time highs.

Now we’re waiting for QQQ to join the party.

And with a slew of earnings coming up this week, along with all of the historical data telling us that these next few months are historically bullish, we want to be long this bull market with size.

I did my best to convince you why we’re bullish - did it work?

We talked through all of this and how we plan on making the most out of it during our live video conference call two weeks ago. Check it out if you haven’t already and review the details of each trade.

Many of the trades we put on are already over 100% profit. Just check out

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See you tomorrow,

Hamilton

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